Storyline #2: Is Grant Holloway The Next Ashton Eaton?
Holloway is, objectively, one of the best high school athletes ever in two events. He's #2 all-time in the 60 hurdles and #3 all-time in the long jump. And he's excellent at the high jump, with a 7-0 indoor PR and 7-1 outdoor PR. That leaves two events in the pentathlon: the shot put and the 1000 meters. Holloway has not show that he's particularly good at either--he ran 2:51 in the 1K and threw the shot 38-11 in January. (He did both events on the same day, making for one of the strangest doubles ever)
But he's so transcendently good at the other three events that it doesn't matter. If you enter his indoor PRs:
7.59 60m hurdles
7.91m (25-11.5) long jump
11.86m (38-11) shot put
2.13m (7-0) high jump
2:51.68 1000m
into USATF's simple multis calculator, you get 4,396 points. The high school national record is 4,307, the collegiate record (with a heavier shot put and higher hurdles) is 4,399, and the world record (again, with a heavier shot and higher hurdles) is 4,497.
Saturday is Holloway's career debut in the pentathlon. So you figure inexperience with the event and relative lack of competition in his best events will slightly depress his scores. Keeping his 1K and shot put the same (assuming he has plenty of room for improvement in those events) and worsening his hurdles to 7.69, his long jump to 7.79m (25-6.5), and his high jump to 2.10m (6-10.5), Holloway would score 4,310 points and break the HSR by three points.
Sparknotes (are those still a thing?): if Holloway doesn't PR in anything but comes close in everything, he'll narrowly break the record. If he equals his PRs in everything, he smashes the record. If he underperforms badly in one of his best events, he needs to equal his PRs in everything else. (A 7.90 hurdles plus tied PRs in the other four events equals a new record.) If he sets PRs in one or two events and is average--by his standards--in everything else, he smashes the record.
Odds are good for the king of keys.
The curiosity is in the pentathlon, but the competition is in the hurdles. Last year, Holloway won a national title by less than a hundredth of a second and ran 7.59 to become the #2 performer of all time. This year, he's hurdled three times--as opposed to four at this point last year--and clearly focused more on being well-rounded. He hasn't lost a hurdle final this year but his 55H season best of 7.14 coverts to 7.78 for 60 meters--slower than US #1 Braxton Canady and #2 Trey Cunningham have hurdled this winter, and only 0.01 faster than #2 Matthew Moore. All three are entered this weekend, though Holloway is the favorite. Despite a slightly decreased focus on the hurdles, his season best is 0.05 seconds faster than it was at this time last year.
--Dennis Young
Watch Holloway celebrate his 25-11.5 LJ mid-air: