Preview: 2024 Nike Cross Nationals Girls

There are three regions that comprise the best challengers to the throne, each with their own storied history. New York has won 15 of the last 18 NXN's, even removing two renditions from the COVID era where Saratoga was ranked US #1. The Southwest is coming off a 2023 which saw the first-ever sweep of the three podium positions by a single region. And then there is California, who has more podium appearances than any other state outside New York, but has never come closer than 70 points to the win.

The Contenders

Mountain Vista (Colo.) comes in as the slight favorite, heavily boosted by their stellar performance at Regionals. They also are the top returning team of all the top contenders, placing third in 2023 without any seniors, and coming back with a battle-tested squad. Their rise has been steady, in a very competitive state, with the sole focus being deep into the season. That was evident with their performance at Regionals, which outclassed anything they had done prior, and put them atop the National Rankings. It didn't hurt they were coming down from elevation to race on the pancake-flat course. They eclipsed last year's champions, Air Academy, by 70 points, and did so with a 46-second compression.

Before they moved back to US #1, it was Bethlehem Central who had sat atop the rankings. The New York squad had modeled their success after the champion teams of the past, local to their area. A group of girls who had been training together for years, starting before high school in the USATF Club system, and working together towards their shared goal. They too return from a year ago with much of their squad intact, where they placed 11th. The squad, admittedly five deep, had been rotating their finishing order all season, all while maintaining one of the tightest compressions in the country for a team at that caliber. They ran the gauntlet of consecutive racing through Suburbans-Sectionals-States-Regoinals, and the racing on tired legs took its toll at the Qualifier. However, due to a scheduling change, New York for the first time has a gap week of rest and travel, and could push Bethlehem back to full strength.

Finally, two California squads look to put themselves over the edge. Both have run record-breaking 5-man averages on storied courses across California, making waves all season long. Buchanan is returning here from a year ago, placing 8th, while Trabuco Hills is making its first trip in its current iteration. Buchanan models itself more closely to Bethlehem, relying on compression, while Trabuco Hills has legitimate frontrunners, who could score single digits in the team battle. The two styles each carry with them their own advantages. Compression provides security, while one major run by Trabuco's fifth girl, and they could solidify their win with emphasis.

The Race

Of the three qualifying races, only Bethlehem saw any real challenge in the course provided. As courses flatten out, it relaxes any variabilities you see in performance and typically makes projecting races easier. Athletes are less likely to have an off day. As courses become more difficult, there is a greater chance of a variance from expected performance, as athletes handle things like hills, weather conditions, and mud differently. How athletes handle the conditions of NXN plays into the race. The Glendoveer course is a fair compromise for all teams attending; it is not as difficult as some courses are out East, but not as easy as those out West. Conditions for Portland look warm, and relatively dry, with the only rain of the week happening on Thursday. 53 degrees is projected for Saturday.

The race is close enough, it could be considered a toss-up. Take the Colorado and New York State Meet performances, and Bethlehem gets the edge. Take the performances, and it's clear Mountain Vista is ahead. The California teams have had trouble converting in the past, and indeed are now the only region without a rest week between their qualifier and Nationals. But that also means they only have to peak once, and carry it on through a week. Trabuco is as good as any California team has been, and has two verifiable challengers to the podium as an individual, while Buchanan has the experience of finishing on the podium in 2022. As we see it, it's a four-way race.

Projections

Below are projections, based mainly on the team's most recent two races. These points will likely compress on the top, and inflate on the bottom. For some, typically the teams in the lower half, the goal was to qualify, and they don't have their best races at NXN. This compresses the team scoring for those at the top, who are in contention for a Top 10 finish. Also, anything can happen on race day, including illness, injury, and incidental contact in the race. That's why we toe the line, to see who is the best on the day.

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