Herriman (Utah) senior Micah Tang at 2024 Woodbridge Cross Country Classic
Photo: Raymond Tran/MileSplit CA
TEAMS
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The Contenders
All season long, it's been a tale of two at the top. Herriman (UT) the reigning National Champions out of the stacked Southwest Region, and Christian Brothers Academy (N.J.), on the 13th anniversary of their first National Title. Both teams can be included within the Top 10 Teams All-Time in terms of performance over the season, and not since 2004 has a national team title been this hotly contested between two powerhouse teams. Each team has a claim to the title, each with an adversity to overcome as well.
Herriman is the reigning National Champion. They return four from that team, and have two transfers added to the squad (coincidentally, Noah Manwaring transferred from just outside CBA's radius in NJ last Fall). They have been able to run through the season, and not untested. They were able to dominate the Woodbridge Classic by over 100 points, and followed that up with a similar performance at Bob Firman. Both fields included two or more NXN-Qualifying teams. Their biggest challenges came from within their own Region, as American Fork (UT) gave them a scare at the State Meet, and Niwot (CO), ranked US #3, was able to match pace with their impressive outing at NXR. But each time, Herriman was able to withstand the pressure, and come out ahead.
Christian Brothers Academy is playing chase. They too, have an all-time historic squad. They've been able to set 5-man average Course Records at all but one of their outings in 2024, including both storied courses Bowdoin Park and Holmdel Park. Twice, they were able to improve upon their own Course Records, demonstrating that not only did they start out strong, but they've been steadily improving throughout the season. This characterization, always better than the week before, has carried them to the top of the rankings, albeit by only a slight margin. Their Northeast Regional was their only 'off-race,' and that was only because one of their typical scorers was on the ground 500m into the race, having to move up from dead last. They still beat the field by over 100 points.
Two other teams remain dark horses, each capable of taking the crown. Niwot has been on the heels of Herriman for much of the season, and has put together their best team ever. Twice they've taken second on the girls' side, but have yet to podium on the boys. With a return to form from their frontrunner Rocco Culpepper, they are capable of snatching the title. Likewise, American Fork also hales from the Southwest. Last year, they beat Herriman at State, then finished second at NXN. They are the most successful team to not win NXN, having placed second three times. Could the fortunes reverse in 2024?
The Race
Christian Brothers have been the more consistent team this season, while Herriman has been the most consistent at Glendoveer. Twice, Herriman has podiumed at NXN, third in 2022 and first last year. It shows they know how to run on the course, and perform in a national environment. They've had some fluctuations in the performance of their top five, but have a solid 6 and 7 to step in when needed. CBA has that same depth, and the race may come down to how many of that top five run consistently to their best this season. Both teams have been able to withstand outside pressures to their ranks, but won't be able to withstand each other if one has a perfect race, and the other doesn't. CBA was slated to make a run at the podium in 2023, but came away 6th with some inconsistent performances. But again, Herriman was able to bounce back '22 to '23, so there is confidence CBA can do the same.
Projections
Below are projections, based mainly on the team's most recent two races. These points will likely compress on the top, and inflate on the bottom. For some, typically the teams in the lower half, the goal was to qualify, and they don't have their best races at NXN. This compresses the team scoring for those at the top, who are in contention for a Top 10 finish. Also, anything can happen on race day, including illness, injury, and incidental contact in the race. That's why we toe the line, to see who is the best on the day.
Place | Team | Points | Scorers | |
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1 | Christian Brothers Academy | 106 | 1+10+20+30+45 (49+55) | |
2 | Herriman | 113 | 5+11+14+31+52 (58+100) | |
3 | Niwot High School | 149 | 15+17+33+40+44 (67+112) | |
4 | American Fork | 195 | 2+32+36+53+72 (80+120) | |
5 | Coeur d'Alene High School | 210 | 6+16+28+74+86 (98+99) | |
6 | Jesuit (SJ) | 225 | 23+25+26+43+108 (115+131) | |
7 | Carroll High School | 247 | 4+21+46+84+92 (96+122) | |
8 | Downers Grove (North) | 249 | 9+12+65+78+85 (118+124) | |
9 | Menlo School (CC) | 250 | 3+19+56+66+106 (135+141) | |
10 | Glendora (SS) | 291 | 18+24+50+94+105 (117+142) | |
11 | Bridgeland | 305 | 7+37+70+81+110 (119+147) | |
12 | Rockhurst High School | 306 | 8+41+57+64+136 (139+145) | |
13 | Taylorsville | 317 | 29+38+79+83+88 (150+151) | |
14 | Belen Jesuit Preparatory School | 320 | 13+60+71+75+101 (102+130) | |
15 | State College | 341 | 34+39+63+73+132 (137+152) | |
16 | Jesuit | 360 | 27+59+68+95+111 (114+123) | |
17 | Spring Hill High School | 368 | 35+47+61+97+128 (146+153) | |
18 | Austin Vandegrift | 378 | 48+54+82+91+103 (121+125) | |
19 | St. Albans School | 382 | 22+51+90+93+126 (129+140) | |
20 | Sioux Falls Lincoln High School | 410 | 62+69+76+87+116 (134+149) | |
21 | Monroe-Woodbury | 477 | 42+77+107+113+138 (144+148) | |
22 | Xavier | 562 | 89+104+109+127+133 (143+154) |