Fremont (Neb.) senior Juan at 2024 Foot Locker West Regional
Photo: MileSplit
Individuals
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There is no better way to describe the field in 2024, than to look back at the 2023 race. Heading into NXN 2023, he wasn't on anyone's radar. He didn't win his Regional. He had only won one major Invitational. He wasn't ranked in the US Top 10. None of that mattered on the line of NXN, and he went out and led from the halfway point, and never let go. Of course, he would go on to break 4 minutes in the mile that season, and become the top placing true freshman at NCAA's this year, but at the time, NXN was unexpected.
Expect the unexpected once again. There is no real true favorite here.
The Contenders
There is no standout athlete who has clearly established himself above the rest. But five athletes have the credentials to be considered 'in the running'. Juan Gonzalez has been the most consistent athlete of the season, undefeated throughout and battle-tested to boot. He took down two quality fields at both the NXR Qualifier, and then a week later at the Foot Locker Qualifier. His State Meet performance saw him win by almost a full minute. He finished 10th at Foot Locker in '23, and 42nd at NXN. He has been consistently in the US Top 5 Rankings all season, moving to US #1 in the last edition.
Keegan Smith is new to the rankings, but not to the headlines. He started early, putting together a fantastic freshman year, and has now returned to the National Stage, with two big performances over the last weekend. Slightly unheralded before that in '24, he took down Brodey Hasty's Course Record at NXR, then won the Foot Locker South competition one week later. He is peaking at the right time, and a win would be a storybook ending to his HS XC career.
Joe Barrett is the top projected team scorer, and the better he runs, the better his team does. He's had some variability this season, but when he is on, he is one of the best in the country, proven by his runs at Bowdoin Park this season. He'll have the interesting task of weighing the risks of pushing for the win, versus the conservation of safety for proper team scoring.
Manny Putz is your top returner, in a field that saw a near-blanket finish behind the three podium slots in 2023. He was just a few strides off Gonzalez at the NXR Qualifier, before a reverse of fortune one week later at Foot Locker. That means NXN is the only avenue for performance in the postseason, and we can expect him to treat it as such.
Rounding out the top five is Ty Steorts, your second top returner from Foot Locker in 2023. He ran a strong, gutsy race there, before fading, and has proven he has the wheels to keep up with the best. He took second at his qualifier, similar to Jourdan in '23, and we could possibly see that become a winning strategy.
The Rest
As we mentioned, any of the top names below could be in the mix, and then some. Tayvon Kitchen is local to the area, and is looking to represent his team after an off-race at the regional knocked them out of consideration. TJ Hansen had similar luck at his NXR, but after getting knocked down, managed to surge back to qualify. Eyan Turk is coming off a big win at the CIF Merge, and weights California's three-year title streak on his back. This race is impossible to predict.
The Race
We expect the race to go out more conservatively than the girls. There will be a need to establish yourself in the front of the pack early, but we could see this race going five wide through the mile. At the halfway point, where athletes reach the horseshoe on the hill, the strength runners will begin to separate, thinning out the front pack. There, decisions will have to be made on whether to go with the group or wait for a well-timed kick. Leave it to the final stretch of 300m, and this is anyone's race.