It's been almost a month since our last MileSplit 50 Teams update and the culmination of the season is upon us. We'll have one more team update, which will serve as our NXN preview, before the rankings get settled once and for all in December. Since our last update, we let 49 state meets settle out the top teams around the country, and then nearly half of the Nike Cross National Regionals have taken place. Only the California and South Carolina State Meets remain, alongside the remaining Nike Regionals, spread out over the next two weekends.
New Rankings Criteria
We scrapped the rankings entirely and started from scratch. The old XC adage goes, "Nobody on the line in December cares what you did in September." We took all the results from only the state and regional meets so far and merged them. We then made minor adjustments to individual runners, who had a one-off bad performance, but would be back in regular form in their next consecutive meet. Remarkably, the rankings remained relatively the same, reinforcing their accuracy heading into our last update. That doesn't mean there weren't huge jumps, or setbacks, for teams across the country, but that's why we run the races.
Pandemonium.
That's the only appropriate word for someone trying to rank teams Nationally after a wild two weeks. It also makes for an unpredictable At-Large bid process. Here's the craziest things we've seen.
Midwest - Where to start? The Illinois State Meet came down to two points separating the top three teams, with the eventual Regional Champion Downers Grove (North) taking third among them. Winner Barrington had several key members leave for U20's in England the following week, and they dropped down. York, who took second, looks to have spent themselves at State and dropped down even further. Fourth at the Ill. State Meet, Prospect, took 5th at the Regional. If you took the marks from State, and put them into the National Rankings, all four teams would be ranked in the US 10-20. As it stands, only one is.
It doesn't end there. Romeo dominated the Michigan State Meet but saw their lead runner fall back to their third at State. One key position change, and they lost the meet by a single point, when it may have been thirty points the other way. Anything can happen at Regionals, and when ranking teams, you need to decide if one race rules the rankings, or you let past races influence you.
Heartland - As above, the difference between State and Regional can be stark. Pleasant Valley took first over Pella in the Iowa state merge, while Johnston took fourth overall. At the Regional, it was Johnston who beat both of them, where Pella's Number 2 fell to be their 7th girl. The rest of Pella's squad ran the race of the Season for them, and with a return of Pella's number 2, they would have been a clear second in the region. In addition, their squad is better set up for a National field, as the displacement positions shift. But as it stands, they are out of the running for the big show, barring two At-Larges for the Region. Much like with Crater, OR on the boys, do you rank on results, or potential with everyone at full strength at a future meet?
Southeast - There are five teams in legitimate contention, and how the regional plays out this weekend, may be different from how those teams would fare amid a National field. James Robinson won the VA State Meet on a tie-breaker over West Springfield, but does much better in a deeper field. Brentwood High School and the Webb School have much the same relationship in Tennessee. And then you throw in Cardinal Gibbons of North Carolina, who on paper is no clear favorite, destroyed all the teams on the same course at Great American. This one could go any which way, and it's hard to gauge which teams should break in the National Ranks.
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At-Large Implications - Just as confusing as the Southeast, is California. They have five teams in the top 10, and maybe more in the top 25 after their California State Meet. How it will play out will depend on who is healthy, but it looks safe to say, as safe as the Southwest on the boy's side, that CA will get two At-Larges. Where it goes after that, there is no clear favorite. Southwest has the next best third-place team, and then the Southeast, whomever that may end. But it's hard to make a guess before the Regionals, and that's why the races are run.
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A Look At The Top
The East Coast/West Coast battle has long been a narrative in the sport of Cross Country. On the girl's side, it's long been New York vs. California. In 2024, it's New York vs. the Southwest. The two philosophies have always been split by the nature of their respective seasonal schedules. West Coast teams open up early, race well deep into September, and dominate the early rankings. The Northeast teams don't start rolling until mid-October but ramp up continuously through November. You Both then have a collision course set for December. Such is the story in 2024.
Bethlehem, N.Y. remains US #1, over a strong Mountain Vista, Colo. Both teams will have their respective Regional on Saturday. However, Bethlehem will have a relatively easy time, while Mountain Vista has some other teams within the MileSplit 50 to contend with. It will give another strong test in preparation for another heavy Southwest podium at NXN.
Bethlehem is coming off the New York State Meet, where they scored the lowest point total in a decade. That's a good sign when New York teams have won NXN more times than not in that same time period.
What gives Bethlehem its edge on the country, is the concept of interchangeability. Great teams have interchangeability at the 5th and 6th positions, a backup plan for any problems at the front of the lineup. Both Boys US #1 and US #2 utilize that concept, which makes them so strong.
For Bethlehem, it's a different kind.
Their interchangeability comes from within their compression. They scored 20 points at the New York State Meet, and did so with 13.1 second compression 1 through 5. Coincidentally, they tied the point total of the 2014 Manlius girls team at States, who went on to win NXN with an 11-second compression. Interchangeability within that top 5 relieves the pressure off any 'front-runner,' where teams put all their hopes on the singular low-stick. There is no pre-ordained favorite in the Bethlehem top 5. They've all taken turns at the helm. The finishing order has been different for every race. It's a shared burden, and shared pressure. It allows the athletes to feed off each other within the race, and find a familiar face in an unfamiliar place. It's what gives them the edge in the National Ranks.