It's been almost a month since our last MileSplit 50 Teams update and the culmination of the season is upon us. We'll have one more team rankings update, which will serve as our NXN preview, before the rankings get settled once and for all in December. Since our last update, we let 49 State Meets settle out the top teams around the country, and then nearly half of the Nike Cross National Regionals have taken place. Only the California State Meet remains, alongside the remaining Nike Regionals, spread out over the next two weekends.
New Rankings Criteria
We scrapped the rankings entirely and started from scratch. The old XC adage goes, "Nobody on the line in December cares what you did in September." We took all the results from only the State and Regional meets so far, and merged them. We then made minor adjustments to individual runners, who had a one-off bad performance, but would be back in regular form in their next consecutive meet. Remarkably, the rankings remained relatively the same, reinforcing their accuracy heading into our last update. That doesn't mean there weren't huge jumps, or setbacks, for teams across the country, but that's why we run the races.
As NXR Regions play out, the age-old question of At-Large bids comes into play. Four At-Large bids are available, and no region can get more than two. Currently, the Southwest Region has six teams in the Top 25 rankings, with another two on the honorable mention list. It would be safe to say they deserve two bids. That leaves two more across eight different regions. At the moment, there are no clear favorites for those other two slots. Below, you can find the rankings of the raw ranks of the Top 40 teams in the country, for their non-Top 2 proposed teams by Region.
Of course, this chart comes with a few caveats. First, our rankings do not affect the at-large process, it's all just conjecture. Next, most regions have not run yet, and teams typically race their best at Regionals, which also includes the California State Meet. Lastly, the At-Large process entails more than just regional results.
The biggest question at the moment, is what to do about Crater OR. One key personnel loss dropped their finish placement to fourth at the Regional. At full return, they are a top-ten team. But to get another chance, they would have to take the third-place team as well, meaning the four At-Large spots would be split between only two regions, a rarity. The only recourse would be to go to RunningLane as a team, and race in a way that would be undeniable to push them back up the rankings. But again, there are several regions to be run, so it's hard to tell which way those At-Larges go at the moment.
In any sense, the season is ramping up, and elimination meets are the name of the game. Survive, and advance.
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A Look At The Top
The East Coast/West Coast battle has long been a narrative in the sport of Cross Country. On the girl's side, it's long been New York vs. California. In 2024, for the boys, it's the Northeast vs. the Southwest. The two philosophies have always been split by the nature of their respective Seasonal schedules. West Coast teams open up early, race well deep into September, and dominate the early rankings. The Northeast teams don't start rolling until mid-October but ramp up continuously through November. You Both then have a collision course set for December. Such is the story in 2024.
Herriman UT has been the dominant team in 2024, rightfully so as the reigning Nike Cross Nationals Champions. Christian Brothers Academy NJ has been chasing the Southwest squad all season and has managed to surpass them in the final rankings heading into each respective Regional Weekend.
Both are all-time great teams. The difference that pushed CBA over the top is that they have yet to have an "off race" this season. At each position, in every subsequent meet, their runners have improved over the weekend before. It's been a slow burn but has been ramping up, with each runner gaining a Speed Rating point or two each outing.
In contrast, Herriman has seen some fluctuation. Using the raw scores from their State Meet, they would be ranked US 8, with American Fork at US 10. Based on experience at both Regionals and NXN, they are better teams than that showing, and the rankings reflect that. But it does show a vulnerability.
That being said, if Herriman runs a race where each of their Top 5 match their best of the Season, the race comes down to a coin toss, completely even up. The argument could also be made that CBA is due for an 'off race,' as would be any other team. If it happens at NXN, Herriman is the clear favorite. It's a matchup reminiscent of 2004, where New York's best faced off against Illinois' best at NXN. Whatever happens, the fans will be in for a treat.
Lastly, don't forget Niwot CO, who could very well steal a victory if both teams only focus on each other.