COROS MileSplit50: Beckman (CA) Leaps To No. 5

The Weeks That Were

In the past three weeks since our last update, we saw California begin to shape up, running at Clovis and Mt. SAC. Manhattan brought in the top teams on the East Coast, and the Midwest headed to Naperville to face off. For the rest of the country, it was about settling down into local competitions, as the District, League, and Regional Conference meets necessary to qualify for their respective State Meets became the focus. Survive and advance was the name of the game as we head into a State Meet Season that could provide some of the biggest thrills of the year. This weekend, Texas and Colorado will bring about changes in the MileSplit 50, as Utah kicks off in the middle of the week.

The rankings are easing into their final order ahead of Regional Qualifiers for the National Meets, NXN being the primary focus for the top teams. Above all else, we are eagerly awaiting the Texas State Meet. There are four Texas teams within our National Ranks, and many have not faced off head-to-head. It's hard to tell how it will all shake out, and with the predicted weather being inclement, we may not even know how things will stack up at Nike South, under cleaner conditions.

Editor's Note: After this article was finished, Utah held their State Meet. It created some changes to our National Rankings, and with good reason. Some teams know how to peak, and perform at their best, when it matters most. This is sometimes incongruent with our rankings. Through September, our rankings are reflective of the prior year, mixed in with early season results. Through October, it's all about what you've actually done. Once we hit November, it turns into what we think you can do, and how specific factors such as course conditions and athlete injuries affect scoring. Some teams don't show up until they have to, and they make big jumps up the rankings late into the game. We've altered our rankings to reflect that.

A Look At The Top

Like the girls', there are two teams who have since separated themselves from the field, and again like the girls', it's the Northeast vs. the Southwest. Herriman UT is the top team in the country, and the reigning Nike National Champions. Christian Brothers Academy NJ is their biggest challenger, and have won the title once before (in 2011 under former coach Tom Heath). The teams are at a near-dead heat, with parity at the 4th and 5th positions. The true separation comes from their respective 1-2-3 place finishers, and what their running means in the density of a field like NXN.

NXN is a unique field of athletes, unlike most any team will see all year. There is a large swath of teams, typically ranked 15 through 22, who will underperform. They are those that took second in their region, and are happy for the experience. Then, there are the top teams, who overperform their projections, leading to lower scores than those projected, partly because of the underperformance of others. It means there are fewer points to play around with. And lastly, there are the individual runners, who don't play into the team scoring, but do play into the dynamics of the race. They make the race faster, as they don't have to worry about the responsibilities to a team, and can take the risk of going out hard.

Joe Barrett is a legitimate threat up front, to either win individually, or at least place as the top team scorer. Powell, Tostenson, and Mantecon may have something to say about that, but it assures a low number up front for CBA. Herriman's advantage comes from the lack of runners separating their 1 through 2, where the pack density is filled with other individuals, rather than team runners, whereas there is a huge swath of scorers in the range of 182 to 188. CBA's advantage from their front runner gets eaten up quickly. From there, it's a head-to-head matchup between the next three, and that's what could decide the race. It could be one of the closest races ever, between two teams who look likely to break into the top ten of all-time.

Editor's Note: Since this was written, the Utah State Meet was held. Herriman won by six points over another ranked team. Much of that was due to a falter in their fifth position. They were able to survive their State Meet, but had it been at Nationals, and CBA was at their best, it would change the outcome. It goes to show how rankings can predict what could happen, but there are so many variables on race day, that anything can happen. That's why we run the races.