Which Girls Athletes Will Emerge As Qualifiers At Eastbay?

The Contenders

1. Angelina Perez, Lakeland Regional (NJ)

2. Karrie Baloga, Cornwall (NY)

3. Ellie Shea, Emerging Elites (MA)

4. Juliette Whittaker, Mount De Sales (MD)

5. Charlotte Bednar, Lawrenceville School (NJ)

While the Eastbay Northeast Region could be the race with the most top-level depth, with potentially four-to-five legitimate candidates who could contend for a national title on Dec. 11 in San Diego, it may also be the weakest of the three regions on Saturday. 

Beyond those top five athletes -- Perez, Baloga, Shea, Whittaker and Bednar -- the Northeast Region will certainly be a little more unpredictable, with any number of underrated talents stepping up to take those final qualifying spots. 

This much is true, though: You can't deny those big-time national threats. 

Perez is chief among them, with a perfect 9-0 resume. She's coming off two career-defining wins at the NJSIAA Meet of Champions and the Group Championships, where she posted two straight 17:10 outings at Holmdel Park -- the second and third fastest times ever at the course. 

But to be a contender means to be hunted, and Perez will certainly have competition. 

Shea is the wildcard, with second-place Mayor's Cup finish to her name this year. Baloga qualified for Foot Locker Nationals as a freshman and was an All-American all the way back in 2019. This season, as a junior, she broke 17 minutes for the first time for 5K. Hard to discount that improvement. 

And the stealthiest pick may be Whittaker, who was 13th at Foot Locker in 2019. She's a gamer who understands how to ratchet up the effort.

Then there's Bednar, who dropped a sub-16 5K on the track in April. Nobody else here has ever gone faster at the distance. 

Should Be Safe

6. Mia Cochran, Moon Area (PA)

7. Jenna Mulhern, West Chester Henderson (PA)

8. Lilly Shapiro, Colts Neck (NJ)

All three of these athletes should feel somewhat safe -- at least from a certain perspective. Perhaps you should never feel safe in a qualifying race. However, Cochran, Mulhern and Shapiro are experienced and opportunistic enough to get the job done. 

Mulhern has run unattached this season and competed in October at the FSU Invitational, finishing second in a 6K collegiate race in a time of 20:49.5.

Cochran, meanwhile, was undefeated in Pennsylvania and is coming off a PIAA Class AAA title, though her most important races were probably her sixth-place outing at Great American and her seventh-place finish at Desert Twilight -- those efforts, both non-wins, likely will prepare her mentally for a race like this.

On the other end, Shapiro is reliable, a winner of five races. She was second only to Perez at the NJSIAA Meet of Champions. 

Phew, That Was Close

9. Kate Putnam, Cicero-North Syracuse (NY)

Putnam unleashed a stellar effort on Oct. 9 at the Saratoga XC Invitational, clocking a time of 17:14.72 for 5K. It was one of four wins on the season. But her season also has featured some setbacks, including a 14th-place performance at the NYSPHSAA Class A Race. 

And yet, there's nothing like redemption on the mind, and Putnam has the talent and opportunity to make big things happen on Saturday at Van Cortlandt Park.

Livin' On A Prayer

10. Carmen Luisi, Holliston (MA)

10. Olivia Haas, Blue Mountain (PA)

Predictions here are like a flip of the coin. Luisi and Haas have both claimed sub-18 performances for 5K on the season. But neither has been in the kind of top-level race like the one they'll face Saturday. 

Stepping into the unknown is part of the allure of racing. On Saturday, each athlete could secure their best performance yet.

If I had to guess, I'd likely put my money on Luisi, who has four efforts under 18 minutes on the season, including a personal best of 17:42.10 from Nov. 6 and a Massachusetts state championship on Nov. 20. 

MileSplit Northeast Breakdown: Our Pre-Race Top 12