Digging Deep Into The Nike Cross Nationals Southwest Region

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* The Corner Canyon (UT) boys are ranked No. 4 in the country

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BOYS RACE 

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We couldn't be headed for better conditions on Saturday. Temperatures are expected in the high 50s and low 60s as races get underway at the Grande Sports Academy Course in Casa Grande, Arizona. The championship boys race will begin at roughly 10:47 a.m. MST while the girls race will follow at 11:27 a.m. Teams from Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada will toe the line for a chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals.

Previous Placement: 

2018: 1. Dakota Ridge (CO); 2. American Fork (UT); 3. Moutain Vista (CO); 4. Davis (UT)

2017: 1. Mountain Vista (CO); 2. Sprinville (UT); 3. Timpanogos (UT); 4. Desert Vista (AZ)

2016: 1. American Fork (UT); 2. Davis (UT); 3. Springville (UT); 4. Timpanogos (UT)

2015: 1. Mountain Vista (CO); 2. Timpanogos (UT); 3. Lone Peak (UT); 4. American Fork (UT)

2014: 1. American Fork (UT); 2. Davis (UT); 3. Timpanogos (UT); 4. Desert Hills (UT)

CONFIDENCE PICKS BY MILESPLIT: 

1. Corner Canyon (UT); 2. Dakota Ridge (CO); 3. American Fork (UT); 4. Niwot (CO)

Teams To Pay Attention To: 

Dakota Ridge (CO): Ranked just a place behind Corner Canyon in the national rankings, at No. 5, Dakota Ridge is coming off its second straight Class 5A title in Colorado when it posted a 16:07 average, at elevation, and put together an 84-second spread. It's been nearly a month since that race, however, and so if there's any rust, Dakota Ridge can't show it. Senior Connor Ohlson has a chance to score a top five place here. If all goes to plan, his teammates won't be far behind. 

Corner Canyon (UT): The No. 4 team in the country is there for a reason. This should be the Chargers' race to win -- or conversely, lose, if it doesn't go to plan. Few teams are as stacked as Corner Canyon, top to bottom. A healthy Easton Allred makes this team capable of being a top-end NXN team. And with elite talents like Caleb Johnson and Mark Boyle running at No. 1 levels, this team will be hard to beat. At their easy state meet win in Utah, the squad put together a 25-second spread and 15:34 3-mile average. 

American Fork (UT): The Cavemen's state championship loss to Corner Canyon -- it actually finished fourth, behind Davis and Skyridge, too -- was deceiving in that the squad wasn't completely healthy. But Timo and Co., ranked No. 13 nationally, seem to be right back in the thick of the things here. And a healthy American Fork is capable of beating anyone on any given day. On this course, however, the average needs to elevate in a way that's befitting of the field's talent level. 

Niwot (CO): The Cougars have potential. But nothing is guaranteed, and the pack will have to out shine American Fork and its Class 5A neighbor, Dakota Ridge, if it hopes to jump into the top two. The Class 4A champions in Colorado put down a 16:30 average and 75-second spread at their state championship race. 

Mountain Vista (CO): The Class 5A runner-ups to Dakota Ridge put together a 56-second spread and 16:33 average, at altitude, at Colorado's state championships in October. A fully-firing Golden Eagles squad can do some work on this course. 

Farmington (UT): Utah's Class 5A state champion is a sleeper program that can potentially sneak into the top four. Senior Rawson Spackman leads the group. Based on PRs, the squad holds an average of 15:58.96. On a good day, the team can approach a compression under 30 seconds. 

Other Notable Teams: Farmington (UT); Air Academy (CO); Fort Collins (CO)

Top Returners From 2018: 

1. Cole Sprout, Valor Christian (CO); 2. Easton Allred, Mountain Vista (CO); 4. Connor Ohlson, Dakota Ridge (CO); 10. Dylan Schubert, Thompson Valley (CO); 12. Mark Boyle, Corner Canyon (UT); 13. Mason Norman, The Classical Academy (CO); 15. Erik Le Roux, Cheyenne Mountain (CO); 17. Porter Whitworth, Grantsville (UT); 18. William Daley, Denver East (CO); 19. Leo Daschbach, Highland (AZ).

CONFIDENCE PICKS BY MILESPLIT: 

1. Cole Sprout, Valor Christian (CO); 2. Cruz Culpepper, Niwot (CO); 3. Caleb Johnson, Corner Canyon (UT); 4. Easton Allred, Corner Canyon (UT); 5. Connor Ohlson, Dakota Ridge (CO). 

Individuals: 

• Cole Sprout, Valor Christian (CO): The defending champion. The three-time Colorado state champion. Ran the fourth-fastest 5K in high school history this season. Sprout has already had a dream season. But there's a few more major benchmarks to eclipse before he finishes out his high school career. And on Saturday, that starts with NXR Southwest. It won't take a 14:16.01 race to win, though expect Sprout to drop his third-straight sub-15 performance on this course. 
  
• Easton Allred, Corner Canyon (UT): Don't sleep on Allred. Although he's raced just two times in 2019 -- and he's rehabilitated from a stress fracture earlier in the season -- keep in mind he was a runner-up in this race last year and a top-five finisher at NXN in 2018. Allred, along with his Corner Canyon teammates, will be up for the challenge. He's run a personal best of 15:18.41 from October at three miles. If he's close to healthy, Allred could go after a sub-15 effort on this course, much like his 14:41.35 from last year. 
• Cruz Culpepper, Niwot (CO): Culpepper missed this race last year, but he did race at Nike Desert Twilight in 2018, posting a 5K best of 14:43.60. In fact, he's been on this course five times over his career, so he'll know how to attack the race. The Niwot senior said on Saturday his light racing schedule -- just three events in 2019 -- along with his training will position him to go after a big performance on Saturday. 
• Caleb Johnson, Corner Canyon (UT): Since late September Johnson has been Corner Canyon's No. 1 runner. He was the Utah Class Class 6A runner-up and posted a best of 15:05.03 for 3-miles on October 11. He's not going to go for an individual win, but it will be incumbent on Johnson and Allred to position Corner Canyon for a team win. 

• Jordan Black, North Phoenix Prep (AZ): Black has the most to gain at NXR Southwest. The Arizona state champion seems on the cusp of qualifying for NXN with a big performance. And he had his best race at 5K in September on this very course, going 14:55.61. But Black also needs to be wary of pacing. If he hits the right mark, he'll be able to set a PR. 
• Connor Ohlson, Dakota Ridge (CO): Ohlson is the third-best returner from last season and he's become Dakota Ridge's No. 1 runner. So confidence should be at an all-time high. He's run 15:15.00 for 5K and last year went 14:51.72 in this very race. 
• Parker Wolfe, Cherry Creek (CO): After a breakout race at Liberty Bell in September, when he posted a 5K best of 14:47.30, Wolfe has been up and down. He finished third at Roy Griak and third at his Class 5A Championship. To make things more interesting, Wolfe was just 28th in this race last year, with a time of 15:26.71. But Wolfe is a much better runner in 2019, so expect the junior to challenge for a much better performance. 
• Matthew Mettler, Air Academy (CO): He posted a best of 15:09.23 on this course at Nike Desert Twilight and was sixth in Colorado's Class 4A Championships.

Other Athletes To Watch: Kevin Conlon, Fort Collins (CO); Dalton Mortensen, Bountiful (UT); Creed Thompson, Skyline (UT); Luke Sundberg, Valor Christian (CO); Ashton Hysell, American Fork (UT); Mark Boyle, Corner Canyon (UT); Dylan Schubert, Thompson Valley (CO); Roshan Tinoco-Miranda, Rio Rico (AZ); Erik Le Roux, Cheyenne Mountain (CO)

Note: Skyline's Thomas Boyden, ranked third in the Southwest, will be running at Foot Locker.