Predicting the success of a national championship race isn't a simple task.
A number of variables can always define a race, from weather conditions, to course terrain, to cross-country road travel, all the way to the amount of sleep an athlete gets or what he/she eats the day before and the day of.
Here, we have to consider Balboa Park, which historically has been a pretty tough course to run on. Last year's winner, Dylan Jacobs, won in 15:19.70 and came off a 13th-place performance at Nike Cross Nationals.
Only 27 runners all-time have broken 15 minutes on the course.
Below, we've compiled some key numbers for the 40 boys runners ahead of Foot Locker Nationals. We've ranked the field's best PR of 2018 first, then included regional times and speed ratings via TullyRunners.com.
Read: Reviewing Key Numbers In Girls Foot Locker Nationals Race
If you're unfamiliar with speed ratings, here's an explainer:
So what does this all mean?
In short, a speed rating is a number attributed to an XC performance, roughly one point per three seconds, adjusted for overall race quality and depth. Using these numbers, we can compare performances on an apples to apples basis -- in terms of XC times and teams. It provides an answer to the hypothetical question, "What would happen if the best teams in the nation all raced at once?" However, these do not predict the outcome of NXN.
- - -
The Foot Locker Nationals Boys Field
| rank | name | school | PR | REgion Time | Season Best Speed Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Hocker | Indianapolis Cathedral (IN) | 15:00.00 | 16:03.2 | 199 |
| 2 | Jack Stanley | Mendham (NJ) | 15:09.30 | 15:30.20 | 194 |
| 3 | Josh Methner | Hersey (IL) | 15:12.10 | 16:17.3 | 194 |
| 4 | Devin Hart | Pt. Pleasant Boro (NJ) | 14:47.00 | 15:38.40 | 193 |
| 5 | Colin Baker | Academic Magnet (SC) | 14:48.53 | 15:08 | 193 |
| 6 | Drew Bosley | Mequon Homestead (WI) | 14:51.60 | 16:09.2 | 193 |
| 7 | Ares Reading | Niwot (CO) | 14:52.90 | 16:14.7 | 193 |
| 8 | Evan Bishop | East Grand Rapids (MI) | 15:20.90 | 16:09.7 | 193 |
| 9 | Kashon Harrison | Kirtland Central (NM) | 14:49.50 | 15:33.60 | 192 |
| 10 | Carter Solomon | Canton Plymouth (MI) | 14:59.40 | 16:13.3 | 192 |
| 11 | Lucas Aramburu | Brookline (MA) | 15:37.10 | 15:37.10 | 192 |
| 12 | Carter Cheeseman | Fort Worth Christian | 14:50.70 | 15:04 | 191 |
| 13 | Camren Fischer | Fayetteville (AR) | 14:50.90 | 15:09 | 191 |
| 14 | William Frankenfeld | Long Beach Poly (CA) | 15:08.50 | 15:34.40 | 191 |
| 15 | Cruz Gomez | PSJA Memorial (TX) | 14:48.66 | 15:04 | 190 |
| 16 | Cole Bullock | Chattanooga Red Bank (TN) | 14:54.00 | 15:10 | 190 |
| 17 | Connor Nisbet | Wilmington Friends (DE) | 15:00.10 | 15:37.70 | 190 |
| 18 | Noah Hibbard | Arroyo (CA) | 15:05.30 | 15:37.80 | 190 |
| 19 | Daniel O'Brien | Lynchburg Episcopal (VA) | 15:07.68 | 15:07 | 190 |
| 20 | Silas Winders | Henry County (TN) | 15:08.21 | 15:13 | 190 |
| 21 | Jake Renfree | Knoxville Catholic (TN) | 15:10.50 | 15:10 | 190 |
| 22 | Nick Russell | Bishop Kelly (ID) | 15:11.25 | 15:35.30 | 190 |
| 23 | Anthony Grover | JSerra Catholic (CA) | 15:17.80 | 15:37.60 | 190 |
| 24 | Ethan Kern | York (IL) | 15:24.70 | 16:16.9 | 190 |
| 25 | Sam Lawler | Pittsford-Mendon (NY) | 15:25.30 | 15:38.60 | 190 |
| 26 | Liam Murphy | Allentown (NJ) | 15:38.20 | 15:38.20 | 190 |
| 27 | Patrick Anderson | Pittsburgh Mount Lebanon (PA) | 15:38.60 | 15:38.60 | 190 |
| 28 | Matthew Farrell | Windsor Loomis Chaffee (CT) | 15:38.70 | 15:38.70 | 190 |
| 29 | Mustafe Dahir | Choate Rosemary Hall (CT) | 15:39.10 | 15:39.10 | 190 |
| 30 | Richard Sturtevant | Northfield Mount Hernon (MA) | 15:41.30 | 15:41.30 | 190 |
| 31 | Graydon Morris | Aledo (TX) | 14:54.10 | 15:12 | 189 |
| 32 | Connor Livingston | De La Salle (CA) | 15:12.40 | 15:43.50 | 189 |
| 33 | Brendan Favazza | Clarkston (MI) | 15:16.13 | 16:19.1 | 189 |
| 34 | Thomas Boyden | Skyline (UT) | 15:23.50 | 15:38.50 | 189 |
| 35 | David Vannucchi | Onalaska Luther (WI) | 15:40.60 | 16:18.2 | 189 |
| 36 | Zachary Stewart | Brighton (MI) | 15:08.00 | 16:22.7 | 188 |
| 37 | Zachary Erikson | Idaho Falls (ID) | 15:09.40 | 15:48.70 | 188 |
| 38 | David Ahlmeyer | Hendersonville Beech Senior (TN) | 15:14.70 | 15:14 | 188 |
| 39 | Daniel Bausch | Chugiak (AK) | 16:24.00 | 15:46.40 | 188 |
| 40 | Jonathan Velasco | Mission Hills (CA) | 15:25.00 | 15:48.50 | 187 |