Reviewing Key Numbers In Girls Foot Locker Nationals Race

Dec 05, 2018

Predicting the success of a national championship race isn't a simple task.

A number of variables can always define a race, from weather conditions, to course terrain, to cross-country road travel, all the way to the amount of sleep an athlete gets or what he/she eats the day before and the day of.

Only seven girls have broken 17 minutes on the Balboa Park course all-time, though there's a chance a few more could add to that list on Saturday. The top time came nearly 30 years ago, in 1990, when Melody Fairchild netted a win in 16:39.20 in what then was called the Kinney Cross Country Championships.

Below, we've compiled some key numbers for the 40 girls runners ahead of Foot Locker Nationals. We've ranked the field's best PR of 2018 first, then included regional times and speed ratings via TullyRunners.com.

If you're unfamiliar with speed ratings, here's an explainer:

In short, a speed rating is a number attributed to an XC performance, roughly one point per three seconds, adjusted for overall race quality and depth. Using these numbers, we can compare performances on an apples to apples basis -- in terms of XC times and teams. It provides an answer to the hypothetical question, "What would happen if the best teams in the nation all raced at once?" However, these do not predict the outcome of NXN.

So what does this all mean?

The best way to describe speed ratings are that they can be used as seeds heading into a big race. The actual speed ratings will vary from race to race--and often can go up or down a few points based on the race--but these numbers give a composite ability of an athlete.

Related Links:

Here are your 40 Foot Locker Nationals Qualifiers

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The Foot Locker Nationals Girls Field

rank	name	school	PR	region	sr
1	Grace Connolly	Natick (MA)	16:35.30	17:27.60	156
2	London Culbreath	McKinney North (TX)	16:36.86	17:12	153
3	Brynn Brown	Denton Guyer (TX)	16:41.13	17:17	148
4	Ericka Vanderlende	Rockford (MI)	16:43.30	18:20.0	154
5	Hana Catsimanes	San Clemente (CA)	16:50.80	18:20.7	138
6	Heidi Nielson	Katy Cinco Ranch (TX)	16:55.56	17:15	148
7	Emily Covert	Minneapolis Washburn	16:56.40	17:58.3	157
8	Abby Vanderkooi	Western Mich (MI)	16:57.30	18:15.1	151
9	Taylor Ewert	Beavercreek (OH)	16:57.90	18:08.9	157
10	Adelyn Ackley	Hart (MI)	17:00.58	18:36.2	144
11	Sydney Masciarelli	Marianpolis Prepatory (CT)	17:04.00	17:12.60	161
12	Ava Peeples	Dallas Lake Highlands (TX)	17:07.03	17:26	145
13	Jaden Theis	Lansing Catholic (MI)	17:07.30	18:48.6	148
14	Abby Loveys	Randolph (NJ)	17:07.47	17:49.40	150
15	Kristin Fahy	La Costa Canyon (CA)	17:08.50	17:52.8	148
16	Lexy Halladay	Mountain View (ID)	17:08.73	18:11.0	145
17	Allison Wilson	Montgomery (TX)	17:09.46	17:20	149
18	Grace Ping	Winona Cotter (MN)	17:10.80	18:39.4	148
19	Katelynne Hart	Glenbard West (IL)	17:14.90	18:14.0	153
20	Anna Martin	Lehi (UT)	17:15.00	18:06.5	146
21	Adoette Vaughan	Dallas Hockaday (TX)	17:16.09	17:21	147
22	Alex Morris	Naperville North (IL)	17:17.40	18:49.9	152
23	Valerie Lastra	Mater Academy (FL)	17:17.48	17:17	148
24	Marlee Starliper	Northern (PA)	17:17.50	17:17.50	158
25	Riley Stewart	Parker Panthers (CO)	17:18.96	18:49.0	142
26	Alyssa Hendrix	Sarasota Riverview (FL)	17:24.80	17:24	146
27	Jenna Hutchins	Johnson City Science Hill (TN)	17:25.80	17:25	146
28	Victoria Patterson	Deerfield Prep	17:27.02	17:27	145
29	Sarah Roffman	Littleton (MA)	17:29.96	18:12.10	140
30	Allie Janke	North Central (WA)	17:36.80	17:57.9	145
31	Kate Wiser	Pomperaug (CT)	17:40.01	17:52.80	147
32	Erinn Hill	North Central (WA)	17:43.20	18:24.1	136
33	Gabrielle Peterson	Healdsburg (CA)	17:44.30	18:12.4	140
34	Audrey Suarez	Mayfield (CA)	17:44.70	18:18.0	138
35	Colleen McCandless	Granada (CA)	17:47.80	18:25.6	137
36	Olivia Markezich	Bear Creek (CA)	17:56.60	18:21.1	137
37	Taryn Parks	Greencastle-Antrim (PA)	17:59.00	18:11.20	140
38	Mary Hennelly	Suffern (NY)	18:01.9	18:07.60	142
39	Sofie Matson	Falmouth (ME)	18:11.30	18:11.30	140
40	Nicole Vanasse	Basking Ridge Pingry (NJ)	18:16.40	18:16.40	139