Storyline #7: Drew Hunter Will Run Relay Fast
One of the most curious dynamics this weekend is that Drew Hunter is competing--but only in the DMR and the 4x mile. Here's the key question, then: how good does the rest of your relay have to be for a 3:57 high school miler to win it on the anchor?
DMR Breakdown: Loudoun Valley had three boys set 1600 season bests in the Virginia 4A state meet: Colton Bogucki 4:26, Will Smagh 4:29, and Peter Morris 4:31. They also have Nathaniel Thompson, who took 9th in the 300 at the indoor state meet and ran 51.42 outdoors last spring. So let's say--very generously--Bogucki runs 3:10 on the leadoff leg, Thompson 52 on the 400, and a middle distance runner (Smagh, Morris, or someone else) goes 2:00 on the 800. (No one other than Hunter broke 2:04 for Loudoun Valley in the 800 last spring.) With Hunter "just" running 4:00 on the anchor leg--his 3:57 mile converts to a 3:56 1600--that adds up to 10:08. If Hunter goes more like 3:55, that puts Loudoun Valley at 10:03. If we split the difference and give Hunter a 3:58 leg, Loudoun Valley can still afford a total of 6:11 on the first three legs--that's a 53 400, 2:03 800, and 3:15 1200--and hit 10:09. Fordham Prep's current US #1 time is 10:10, and they're not even entered. The top team entered is US #2 Haddonfield, which has run 10:14 this season.
DMR verdict: It's hard to imagine a team building a big enough gap to beat Loudoun Valley, but it'll be fun to watch Hunter chasing on the anchor leg. If Loudoun Valley is even remotely close going into the 1600 leg, it's over. The second fastest miler listed on an anchor leg is 4:06 man Thomas Ratcliffe; Ratcliffe's SB is 9.11 seconds slower than Hunter's. Every other team would need a gap of ten seconds or more.
4xMile Breakdown: The 4x mile is a little more interesting. Bogucki, Smagh, Morris, and Hunter--LV's entered lineup for Saturday's relay--1600/mile bests that add up to roughly 17:28. Even granting the always-dicey proposition that all four relay legs equal their PRs on the same day, that time would have been third last year, fourth in 2014, fifth in 2013, and third in 2012. La Salle Academy has four milers whose season bests add up to 17:13--meaning that each Loudoun Valley would have to set a season best by four seconds just to even things up. Carl Sandburg has four boys whose career bests add up to 17:14, Fordham Prep's top four milers this season add up to 17:29, and Don Bosco's 1600s convert in the 17:30 range, and Corning is the defending outdoor national champ in the event.
4xMile verdict: At least two teams should beat Loudoun Valley, and at least two more can, but they dare not make it tactical for a second. La Salle can build up a 15+ second lead on their first three legs, and that's their best hope for winning this race.
--Dennis Young
Listen to Hunter after he broke 4:00 for the first time: