It was beginning to appear that nationals this year might be a two team race between the American Fork and Fayetteville-Manlius boys, but after La Salle Academy's dominant win on the Northeast Regional racing on the same day and same course as the New York champs F-M, another team appears to be in a good postion coming to Portland to compete for a national title.
Thanks to the great work by Bill Meylan and his speed ratings system developed at tullyrunners.com, we can do an almost instant projection of how the national race might shake out based on the 22 boys and 22 girls qualifying teams' performances at their regional qualifier meets.
NXN Team Projections: Boys - Girls
2014 NXN Boys Team Qualifiers Projections Based on Speed Ratings
(Based on speed ratings from regional qualifier performances only)
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 La Salle (RI) 156 18 19 30 39 50 118 132
Total Time: 2:36 Average: 31.20 1-5 Split: 32
2 Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) 170 3 23 25 46 73 81 135
Total Time: 2:50 Average: 34.00 1-5 Split: 1:10
3 American Fork (UT) 170 6 7 13 61 83 93 128
Total Time: 2:50 Average: 34.00 1-5 Split: 1:17
4 Ventura (CA) 186 14 17 38 40 77 95 125
Total Time: 3:06 Average: 37.20 1-5 Split: 1:03
5 Davis (UT) 195 20 24 31 58 62 124 137
Total Time: 3:15 Average: 39.00 1-5 Split: 42
6 St. Anthony's (NY) 221 12 22 26 57 104 109 112
Total Time: 3:41 Average: 44.20 1-5 Split: 1:32
7 Liverpool (NY) 240 15 28 44 66 87 122 127
Total Time: 4:00 Average: 48.00 1-5 Split: 1:12
8 Sandburg (IL) 242 41 43 47 51 60 69 80
Total Time: 4:02 Average: 48.40 1-5 Split: 19
9 North Central (WA) 244 1 32 48 65 98 131 133
Total Time: 4:04 Average: 48.80 1-5 Split: 1:37
10 Brea Olinda (CA) 252 11 27 35 64 115 116 147
Total Time: 4:12 Average: 50.40 1-5 Split: 1:44
11 Jurupa Hills (CA) 258 10 16 34 85 113 138 143
Total Time: 4:18 Average: 51.60 1-5 Split: 1:43
12 CBA (NJ) 268 8 42 56 74 88 108 136
Total Time: 4:28 Average: 53.60 1-5 Split: 1:20
13 Wayzata (MN) 273 9 21 53 79 111 119 129
Total Time: 4:33 Average: 54.60 1-5 Split: 1:42
14 Carmel (IN) 300 5 67 68 76 84 139 141
Total Time: 5:00 Average: 1:00.00 1-5 Split: 1:19
15 Daniel Boone (TN) 341 2 45 72 92 130 149 152
Total Time: 5:41 Average: 1:08.20 1-5 Split: 2:08
16 Timpanogos (UT) 351 54 59 63 75 100 144 146
Total Time: 5:51 Average: 1:10.20 1-5 Split: 46
17 Sioux Falls Lincoln (SD) 388 4 86 89 99 110 123 126
Total Time: 6:28 Average: 1:17.60 1-5 Split: 1:46
18 Severna Park (MD) 389 55 70 78 90 96 151 153
Total Time: 6:29 Average: 1:17.80 1-5 Split: 41
19 Southlake Carroll (TX) 395 29 33 102 114 117 134 150
Total Time: 6:35 Average: 1:19.00 1-5 Split: 1:28
20 Edina XC Running Club 404 36 82 91 94 101 145 148
Total Time: 6:44 Average: 1:20.80 1-5 Split: 1:05
21 The Woodlands (TX) 406 49 52 97 103 105 106 120
Total Time: 6:46 Average: 1:21.20 1-5 Split: 56
22 Summit (OR) 476 37 71 107 121 140 142 -
Total Time: 7:56 Average: 1:35.20 1-5 Split: 1:43
2014 NXN Girls Team Qualifiers Projections
(Based on speed ratings from regional qualifier performances only)
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Team Pts 1 2 3 4 5 (6) (7)
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) 125 10 15 23 25 52 82 124
Total Time: 2:05 Average: 25.00 1-5 Split: 42
2 Carmel (IN) 179 14 18 41 44 62 87 94
Total Time: 2:59 Average: 35.80 1-5 Split: 48
3 North Naperville (IL) 200 17 21 26 46 90 93 131
Total Time: 3:20 Average: 40.00 1-5 Split: 1:13
4 Great Oak (CA) 207 5 28 50 56 68 76 80
Total Time: 3:27 Average: 41.40 1-5 Split: 1:03
5 Blacksburg (VA) 213 13 20 36 42 102 116 126
Total Time: 3:33 Average: 42.60 1-5 Split: 1:29
6 Palatine (IL) 219 7 33 43 64 72 107 134
Total Time: 3:39 Average: 43.80 1-5 Split: 1:05
7 Saratoga Springs (NY) 234 6 32 58 61 77 115 144
Total Time: 3:54 Average: 46.80 1-5 Split: 1:11
8 Wayzata (MN) 239 3 22 29 86 99 108 140
Total Time: 3:59 Average: 47.80 1-5 Split: 1:36
9 Unionville (PA) 280 4 37 59 83 97 138 152
Total Time: 4:40 Average: 56.00 1-5 Split: 1:33
10 Western Cary (NC) 283 1 48 63 70 101 122 130
Total Time: 4:43 Average: 56.60 1-5 Split: 1:40
11 Camas (WA) 290 16 19 40 106 109 112 149
Total Time: 4:50 Average: 58.00 1-5 Split: 1:33
12 Saugus (CA) 294 12 53 69 71 89 100 114
Total Time: 4:54 Average: 58.80 1-5 Split: 1:17
13 Coe-Brown Academy (NY) 323 9 11 51 125 127 147 148
Total Time: 5:23 Average: 1:04.60 1-5 Split: 1:58
14 Desert Vista (AZ) 332 2 27 74 110 119 120 137
Total Time: 5:32 Average: 1:06.40 1-5 Split: 1:57
15 Willmar (MN) 333 57 65 66 67 78 92 136
Total Time: 5:33 Average: 1:06.60 1-5 Split: 21
16 Shenendehowa (NY) 354 55 60 73 75 91 128 145
Total Time: 5:54 Average: 1:10.80 1-5 Split: 36
17 Lewisville Hebron (TX) 354 38 39 84 95 98 141 150
Total Time: 5:54 Average: 1:10.80 1-5 Split: 1:00
18 American Fork (UT) 355 35 49 54 104 113 121 -
Total Time: 5:55 Average: 1:11.00 1-5 Split: 1:18
19 Coeur D'Alene (ID) 376 24 47 85 88 132 146 151
Total Time: 6:16 Average: 1:15.20 1-5 Split: 1:48
20 Marcus (TX) 401 30 45 79 118 129 139 153
Total Time: 6:41 Average: 1:20.20 1-5 Split: 1:39
21 La Salle (RI) 402 31 34 103 111 123 135 143
Total Time: 6:42 Average: 1:20.40 1-5 Split: 1:32
22 Davis (UT) 407 8 81 96 105 117 133 142
Total Time: 6:47 Average: 1:21.40 1-5 Split: 1:49