Digging Deep Into The Nike Cross Nationals Southwest Region

GIRLS RACE 

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We couldn't be headed for better conditions on Saturday. Temperatures are expected in the high 50s and low 60s as races get underway at the Grande Sports Academy Course in Casa Grande, Arizona. The championship boys race will begin at roughly 10:47 a.m. MST while the girls race will follow at 11:27 a.m. Teams from Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada will toe the line for a chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals.

The top two teams from each championship race will automatically qualify for nationals, while the next two placing teams are entered into an at-large pool to be voted upon by nine region members days following the completion of the last region (California's CIF State Cross Country Championships). The top five individuals -- excluding individuals inside the top five who qualify with teams -- will be automatically selected to run at Nike Cross Nationals. 

Previous Placement: 

2018: 1. Mountain Vista (CO); 2. Battle Mountain (CO); 3. Niwot (CO); 4; Lone Peak (UT)

2017: 1. Battle Mountain (CO); 2. Mountain Vista (CO); 3. Broomfield (CO); 4. Lone Peak (UT)

2016: 1. Mountain Vista (CO); 2. Desert Vista (AZ); 3. Broomfield (CO); 4. American Fork (UT)

2015: 1. American Fork (UT);  2. Phoenix Xavier College (AZ); 3. Davis (UT); 4. Air Academy (CO)

2014: 1. American Fork (UT); 2. Desert Vista (AZ); 3. Davis (UT); 4. Monarch (CO)

CONFIDENCE PICKS BY MILESPLIT: 

1. Niwot (CO); 2. Lone Peak (UT); 3. Cherry Creek (CO); 4. Desert Vista (AZ)

Teams To Pay Attention To: 

• Niwot (CO): The Cougars are the highest ranking team in this field, at No. 10 nationally. And their performance in Colorado's Class 4A Championships was a big reason for that. At altitude, the team averaged 18:47 and a 53-second spread. But a bit of an insider tip: junior Taylor James, who was just third for the team at state, is firing at an even higher level after weeks of training, according to sources at Niwot. 
• Cherry Creek (CO): After an unblemished season with a massive win on the road at Roy Griak, Cherry Creek was upset by Arapahoe in its Class 5A championships. A little disappointing, but this team will likely come in motivated to compete for an automatic berth. Sophomore Riley Stewart has the potential to place in the top five and, based on PRs, the team has the fourth best average in the Southwest with an average of 18:14.74.

• Lone Peak (UT): While the squad last competed in October at its 3-mile state championships, this seems like the most dangerous team on Saturday -- anything can happen. Underclassmen Eliza Arrington and Reagan Gardner have both been very good in 2019, and Arrington, who owns a personal best of 17:59.50 for 3-miles, will likely improve on this flat and fast course. If the squad can run smart -- and with purpose -- then the squad could become the first team from Utah other than American Fork and Davis to qualify. 
• Arapahoe (CO): Can Arapahoe find magic one more time? It upset the power players in Colorado's Class 5A Championship on home soil. But racing in Arizona, on this neutral ground where fast times will dominate, will be a different challenge. The squad owns the ninth-best average based on PRs with a time of 18:39.92. 
• Cherokee Trail (CO): This Colorado team owns the second best average based on PRs -- 18:03.19. That's good news heading into a fast race like this. If the pack can support No. 1 Cameron McConnell with a tight compression, Cherokee Trail will be in the mix for a top four place. And in the Southwest, you can almost guarantee an at-large will be awarded. 
• Desert Vista (AZ): The Thunder, ranked No. 22 nationally, are probably the most ready-made team entering NXR Southwest. Just a week removed from their Division I state title in Arizona -- their first since 2016 -- the squad has a good handle on the pacing it will require to score an NXN bid. Coincidentally, the last time Desert Vista qualified for NXN was back in 2016. Both Lauren and Grace Ping will be racing to qualify for nationals individually -- they can't guarantee a team placement -- though if the pack can provide the kind of firepower it did at Arizona's state championships -- an overall 18:46 average; runners No. 4-5 were under 19:30 and No. 3 Katy Clausen didn't race -- then Desert Vista has a shot. 
• Springville (UT): Springille won its Class 5A championships convincingly, with 42 points, though teams around them are much faster here. The Utah squad will have to compete to earn a place inside the top four. Based on PRs, the squad sports an 18:50.34 average for 5K.
• Mountain Vista (CO): It was anything but a perfect season for the Golden Eagles in 2019. It took some time for the squad to get healthy, and then once everything seemed to come together, it all came apart at state with that fourth-place finish. On a good day, however, Mountain Vista is better than most. And fortunately, they've been there before. Mountain Vista has qualified for NXN over the past three seasons, with two wins to the team's credit. 

Other notable teams: Battle Mountain (CO); American Fork (UT); Farmington (UT); Davis (UT); Valor Christian (CO); Air Academy (CO); Xavier College Prep (AZ); Los Alamos (NM)

Top Returners From 2018: 

2. Hana Hall, Flagstaff (AZ); 7. Riley Stewart, Cherry Creek (CO); 8. Sarah O'Sullivan, Mountain Vista (CO); 9. Taylor Whitfield, Valor Christian (CO); 10. Heidi Sumsion, Springville (CO); 11. Taylor James, Niwot (CO); 12. Eliza Arrington, Lone Peak (UT); 13. Joslin Blair, Eagle Valley (CO); 14. Samrawit Dishon, Niwot (CO); 15. Cameron McConnell, Cherokee Trail (CO); 16. Madison Reed, Mountain Vista (CO); 20. Jasmine Turtle-Morales, Eldorado (NM).

CONFIDENCE PICKS BY MILESPLIT: 

1. Lauren Ping, Desert Vista (AZ); 2. Riley Stewart, Cherry Creek (CO); 3. Samrawit Dishon, Niwot (CO); Cameron McConnell, Cherokee Trail (CO); 5. Samantha Blair, Eagle Valley (CO

Individuals: 

Lauren Ping, Desert Vista (AZ): Odd as this sounds, Ping is a veteran as a high school freshman. She's a two-time NXN qualifier and a two-time NXN All-American. But a year ago she was competing in the Heartland Region -- and finished third in that race. The Southwest will present different challenges all together. But saying that, Ping still remains the most qualified on paper and enters with the best time of the bunch, with her 16:49.13 from the Nike Desert Twilight Festival. She'll likely do enough for the win. 

Riley Stewart, Cherry Creek (CO): Stewart has had a breakout year. She didn't even run in the championship race last year, instead opting for the freshman race, where she finished first overall. Stewart's run a personal best of 17:05.00 for 5K and won her Class 5A Championship in October.  She's lost just one race -- at Liberty Bell to nationally ranked Sydney Thorvaldson. Stewart will give Ping a run for her money. 

Grace Ping, Desert Vista (AZ): After preventive caution on a stress reaction earlier in the year, Ping is back to racing -- and she's gotten progressively faster in each outing. She's coming off a second-place outing in the Arizona Division I Championships, where she finished in 17:57.73. She was second at NXR Heartland a year ago. We haven't seen the best of Ping just yet. 

Eliza Arrington, Lone Peak (UT): Lone Peak's No. 1 has been superb all season, winning four separate races and claiming her Class 6A state championship in 17:55.70. She broke 18 minutes at elevation in Boise, Idaho, at Bob Firman in September and said on Saturday she's ready to help lead Lone Peak to a team qualification -- as long as she and her teammates run smart. 

Samrawit Dishon, Niwot (CO): The newly minted New Mexico signee is in a much different place than she was in last year when she finished 14th in this race. She's been Niwot's No. 1 since September when she laid down a 17:08.02 on this very course at Nike Desert Twilight. And she followed that up a month later with a Class 4A state title in Colorado at elevation in 18:11.90. If she can run toward the low 17s, not only will she guarantee an individual berth to NXN, but she will position Niwot for a team title, too. 

Samantha Blair, Eagle Valley (CO): Blair knows how to run fast on the Casa Grande Sports Complex course. She was fourth at Nike Desert Twilight in September, hitting 17:12.32 on the clock. She was second to Dishon at Colorado's Class 4A race. She could be the sleeper performer in the top five.

Cameron McConnell, Cherokee Trail (CO): McConnell not only has an individual NXN berth on her mind. But she'll also be aiming to position Cherokee Trail for points in the team race. She ran a personal best of 17:3.77 on this course at Nike Desert Twilight in September. 

Hana Hall, Flagstaff (AZ): She's actually the top returning performer from NXR Southwest in 2018, when she was second overall in 17:14.80. The field is much faster this time around, but Hall should still be in the mix for an individual berth. She's won four races this fall, including, most recently, her Division 2 state championships in Arizona in 18:15.13.

Other Athletes To Watch: Joslin Blair, Eagle Valley (CO); Caroline McLeskey, Highland (AZ); Taylor James, Niwot (CO); Brooke Wilson, Valor Christian (CO); Leah Futey, Sue Cleveland (NM); Carlee Hansen, Woods Cross (UT).