NXN At-Large Team Predictions

Nike Cross Nationals 2015

Travis Miller

Nov 26, 2015

Girls At Large Breakdown (Boys HERE)

NXN Northwest

Auto Qualifiers

1) Bozeman

2) Sunset

At-Large Candidates (only including actual candidates)

The Oregon state champs, Summit finished 3rd, but they've had a rocky season and don't have enough on their resume to justify an at large bid.

NXN Midwest

By now you should all know about the chaos from the Midwest region, but it is official that Northville will be competing at NXN. Don't see it happening for Carmel (4th). Even though they are the Indiana state champs, and dominated races in state all season. The only time they went up against elite teams was at NXN Midwest, and they were 4th. Whether the team makes it or not, Judy Pendergast should be in contention for the NXN individual title.

Auto Qualifiers

1) Centerville

2) Northville

At-Large Candidates (only including actual candidates)

3) Naperville North

NAPERVILLE NORTH:

Against qualified teams: Only one point behind Northville at NXN Midwest

Dominated Illinois for most of the season

Finished 2nd to Minooka (didn't race NXN-MW) at Illinois State Championship

In the rankings: Currently ranked 22nd.

Quick Take: Naperville North is an interesting case. They looked strong through the early stages of the season, but what matters most is how you finish. They have no prior races against other auto qualifiers. In their most recent races, they finish 2nd at their state championship to Minooka(didn't race NXN-MW), and 3rd at NXN-MW to Northville. Can't take anything away from the Michigan squad, but for Naperville North, being beaten by a team that was not ranked at the time, and 4th place team at the Michigan State Meet doesn't help your case. Their win-loss record has taken a hit recently, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have an athlete like Judy Pendergast who is almost guaranteed to place Top-5.

NXN Heartland

Auto Qualifiers

1) Willmar

2) Edina

At-large candidates (only including actual candidates)

There are some solid teams that finished 3rd-5th at NXN Heartland, but none have been consistent enough to earn at large selection.

NXN South:

It's not lucky to finish third and be in this situation...but if any team from the south region were to finish 3rd, Marcus is the only team that would have a chance at an at large spot.

Auto Qualifiers

1) Southlake Carroll

2) Kingwood

At-Large Candidates (only including actual candidates)

3) Marcus

MARCUS

Against qualified teams: Didn't get blown out at NXN South, 5pts behind Kingwood.

They were undefeated all season.

Wins over Kingwood at State and the McNeil Invitational

Wins over Southlake Carroll at State and Region

In the rankings: Nationally ranked most of the season. 20th in latest team updated.

Quick Take: Marcus has strong front runners in Arkansas commit Maddy Reed and rising sophomore Quinn Owen. Further helping their case is that the Southlake girls finished 3rd at the Clovis invite to Great Oak and Arcadia. Southlake is clearly able to hold their own against quality teams, and Marcus has two wins over the Carroll girls.

NXN Southwest

The worst case scenario for all at large hopefuls is a highly ranked team finishing outside the Top-2...which is exactly what happened at NXN-SW.

Auto Qualifiers

1) American Fork

2) Xavier Prep

At-Large Candidates (only including actual candidates)

3) Davis

DAVIS

Against qualified teams: Only 2 points behind Xavier Prep at NXN Southwest

Been near the top of the national rankings all season. 5th in latest team update.

3rd at Bob Firman. Almost 80 points ahead of Bozeman (won NXN Northwest)

In the rankings: Davis is ranked #5. Will be extremely unlikely to see them left home.

Quick Take: While American Fork blew out everyone at NXN Southwest, Davis had been close during the season. 6 points behind at Bob Firman and 10 points behind at Utah state meet. Courtney Wayment is a consistent low stick that gives them a boost against larger fields. They should be a lock for an at large spot..

The following meets are on Saturday. At large consideration based on predicted finishes.

NXN Southeast

2014 NXN-SE champions Blacksburg look to be racing better than ever. In the VA state meet merge, the 3A Blacksburg team places first by a commanding 60+ point margin.

Auto Qualifiers

1) Blacksburg

2) Lake Braddock

At-Large Candidates (only including actual candidates)

NXN Northeast

Auto Qualifiers

1) Pennsbury

2) La Salle

At-large candidates (only including actual candidates)

NXN New York

NY gets real messy. It all depends on Shen. They haven't been at full strength for the last month and have been losing by a considerable margin to the other top NY teams. If they are healthy and running well on Saturday, Shen will have a very good shot to break into the Top-4. With that being a significant unknown at this point, they are left off this list.

Auto Qualifiers

1) FM

2) Saratoga

At-large candidates (only including actual candidates)

3) East Aurora/North Rockland

4) Shen

EAST AURORA

Against qualified teams:

At the McQuaid Invitational in early October, they finished 3rd, 15 points behind NXN-MW champs Centerville.

In the rankings: 15th and one spot behind NXN-NW 2nd place team Sunset.

Quick Take: This small school squad has a legitimate chance to contend with the big Class A teams from NY. Challenging FM or Saratoga is likely out of reach, but if they can finish 3rd, they have proven they can race well against other nationally ranked teams.

NORTH ROCKLAND

Against qualified teams:

North Rockland has lost to FM and Saratoga...but who hasn't right?

At the manhattan Invite, they were 3rd behind #12 Pennsbury and ahead of #21 La Salle.

In the rankings: Unranked

Quick Take: This may seem like an obvious statement, but it all depends on how they race Saturday. North Rockland is very evenly matched with East Aurora. Scoring relatively close to FM/Toga and a win over the Class C NY State Champs would be a big boost for their at large chances.

CA State Champs

Merge from top teams at the California state meet determines team auto qualifiers, and then overall merge is used to select individuals. Davis has been running well, and that is even without one of the fastest runners in the country. Fiona O'Keeffe is on the entry list for the California State Champs, and that makes this group even more dangerous. Saugus and Serrano have been extremely evenly matched this season. They will be dueling in the Div 2 race, and the outcome could very well be the deciding factor for an at large spot.

Auto Qualifiers

1) Great Oak

2) Davis

At-large candidates (only including actual candidates)

3) Saugus

4) Serrano